TL;DR: Australia needs 83,000 more skilled tradies just to hit its housing targets, and trade jobs are some of the least likely in the country to be touched by AI. Apprentices get paid from day one and can be qualified and earning six figures within a few years, no HECS debt attached.
There’s a very specific kind of dread going around at the moment. Rent’s up. Everyone’s talking about AI taking jobs. And uni feels like signing up for a decade of debt before you’ve even worked out what you want to do. If you’re 17 or 18 and trying to make a call on your future, none of that is exactly reassuring.
So here’s a version of the story that doesn’t get told enough. While a lot of graduate jobs are being reshaped by AI, the trades are doing the opposite. Employers can’t find enough people to fill the roles, and the pay starts the day you begin, not once you’re qualified. It’s also hard to see a machine taking over that kind of work anytime soon.
AI isn’t coming for the trades any time soon
The federal government released its first-ever report on AI and employment this year, and the split was clear. The jobs most exposed are routine ones: data entry, admin, and clerical work. Jobs least exposed? Electricians, carpenters, plumbers, and other trades barely register on the risk scale. Employment in the most AI-exposed roles has grown by 5.6% since ChatGPT showed up in late 2022, compared to 9.5% in the least exposed ones.
There’s a simple reason for that. AI can write you an email or summarise a report. It can’t rewire a switchboard or fix a hot water system.
You get paid from day one, not five years from now
First-year apprentices are currently earning above $600 a week under award minimums, often more once tool and travel allowances kick in. That number climbs every year of the apprenticeship as your skills build.
Compare that to the average HECS debt, which sits around $27,600 even after the government’s recent 20% debt cut, and takes the average Australian close to a decade to pay off. That’s not a dig at uni, plenty of careers need one. But if the plan is to start earning as soon as possible and stay out of debt while you do it, an apprenticeship is doing exactly that from week one.
By the time many graduates finish their degrees and start their job searches, a tradie who started their apprenticeship at the same time could already be qualified and earning between $90,000 and $115,000 a year. Sole traders running their own show can end up clearing well over that.
The country needs you to do this
The Housing Industry Association estimates Australia is short 83,000 skilled trade workers just to keep up with housing targets. Trade vacancy fill rates are sitting at 54.3%, compared to a national average of 70.2%, which means for every three trade jobs posted, fewer than two are getting filled.
The government has noticed too. Over 25,000 people have started apprenticeships through the Key Apprenticeship Program in the last ten months, with carpentry alone accounting for a huge chunk of new starts.
One thing to know before you sign up
It’s not all smooth sailing. Only around 47% of apprenticeships that started in 2020 were completed four years later, and the most common reason people drop out is dissatisfaction with pay or conditions in a specific workplace. It usually comes down to who you’re apprenticed to, not the trade itself. A bad employer can sour a good career choice fast. Ask about the workplace before you sign anything, and don’t just take the first offer that comes along.
So what does this mean for you?
Between the cost of living and the AI headlines, it’s hard to feel sure about anything right now. A trade is one of the closest things to a safe bet. You earn while you learn instead of racking up debt, and you’re stepping into an industry that’s short-staffed enough to be actively chasing people like you.
